Election 2024: The Arab American & Muslim American Votes Will Be Key to Winning
Often overlooked and marginalized, these highly motivated segments of the electorate will make their mark on the 2024 election. The question is whether Democrats will realize that in time to win.
The Purpose of this Newsletter
Welcome to the inaugural edition of my Substack! I’ve been consistently sharing reports, polling, advocacy efforts, and information related to the SWANA and Muslim communities, respectively, on my social media platforms, and I feel like now is the time to aggregate that information, resources, and thought leadership into a holistic newsletter to make everything more digestible for the people who want to understand and support these communities and our issues.
With the general election only two months away, it’s very clear to me that the Democratic establishment class does not understand the SWANA American electorate, specifically Muslim American and Arab American voters. Not only do they not understand, but also they don’t seem to care to even try to understand despite key two segments of the electorate being key to swing states necessary to win the presidential election. Their actions, rhetoric, and strategy points to marginalization of these communities in the interest of focusing on centrists and moderate Republicans.
This is not a moral, wise, sustainable, or winning strategy, and this Substack will focus on elevating and uplifting SWANA and Muslim American perspectives, experiences, and information.
We exist and we matter and you need us to win.
Election 2024 Overview: Muslim American & Arab American Voters
By the Numbers
There are estimated to be 3.7 million Arab Americans living in the United States, and approximately 85% of them are U.S. citizens eligible to vote.
Per 2020 Census data, it’s estimated that there are 4.5 million Muslim Americans in the U.S., and of this number, 2.5 million are estimated to be registered voters.
In terms of any potential overlap, a 2002 survey indicated that the Arab American population at the time broke down to be 63% Christian, 24% Muslim, and 13% no affiliation/other. These percentages have likely shifted as of today because newer Arab immigrants to the U.S. (10 years or less) tend to be Muslim.
Top Issues: Gaza and Palestine
Regardless of the degree of overlap, these are two distinct segments of the American electorate have both been deeply impacted by the genocide in Gaza and consider both Gaza and Palestine at large to be top issues (Arab, Muslim). Both communities (Arab, Muslim) have directly experienced the spike in hate in sentiment, incidents, and crimes since the genocide began in October.
Highly Motivated Voters
One thing that is critical to understand about both of these groups of voters is that they are HIGHLY motivated to vote in the November election (Arab, Muslim). For president, yes, but also all the way down the ballot. Local electeds eventually matriculate into state-level and federal-level and national roles. Cultivating a better pipeline of leadership to eventually have better Congressional and Presidential candidates in the years to come is essential.
These groups will show up to the polls - guaranteed. And it’s important to remember where they live:
Populations in Key Swing States:
Arranged by estimates of the current population of 1) Arab Americans and 2) Muslim Americans, respectively, by swing state:
Michigan - 1) 393,000; 2) 241,828
Pennsylvania - 1) 127,000; 149,561
Ohio - 1) 169,000; 2) 120,077
Wisconsin - 1) 17,089; 2) 68,699
Georgia - 1) 80,000; 2) 123,652
Arizona - 1) 36,059; 2) 109,765
North Carolina - 1) 42,800; 2) 130,661
Florida: 1) 301,881; 2) 127,172
Yes, there is likely some overlap but the numbers are significant enough to indicate that these are important blocs within the critical swing states that are the path to electoral victory.
For context, Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 presidential election to Donald Trump by only less than 80,000 votes across three key swing states: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
For additional context, Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election against Donald Trump by winning the states Clinton lost - Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania - and by picking up Arizona and Georgia. And the margin of victory in both Arizona and George was less than .5%, respectively.
Every single vote mattered.
Polling: Where Muslim American and Arab American Voters Currently Are
The Council on Islamic Relations (CAIR) National released a poll last week that shows Kamala Harris tied with Dr. Jill Stein for 29% percent of the vote, respectively, among Muslim survey respondents. The poll had Donald Trump receiving roughly 11% of the vote, and nearly 17% of voters remained undecided.
That’s a huge departure from how the majority of Muslim American voted in 2020 - with an estimated 86% voting for Biden and only 6% voting for Trump.
It’s a remarkably similar picture amongst the Arab American community per a poll conducted at the end of July by ADC. 45% of Arab Americans indicated that they would vote for Dr. Jill Stein; 28% would vote for Kamala Harris; 18% of voters were undecided; and 2% would vote for Donald Trump.
Again, we see a huge departure from 2020 when 59% indicated they would vote for Joe Biden (those votes ended up being essential to a victory for him in Michigan) and 35% indicated they would vote for Trump.
Policy Change on Gaza is Required to Win the Election
Believe us when we say things have changed and these communities who are essential to a winning Democratic voting coalition in November are not going to vote for Kamala Harris unless she changes her policy on Israel to uphold both domestic and international laws by conditioning aid to Israel and calling for and implementing an arms embargo against Israel. A ceasefire alone is no longer sufficient - we need a ceasefire, conditioned aid, and an arms embargo.
The numbers are clear, the locations are clear, and both sentiment, and the issues are clear - the only way to win the election is by getting these voters onboard by changing policy.
The 1968 & 2024 Elections: History Repeats Itself
Why are Kamala Harris and the Democrats Risking Losing the Presidential Election Over Israel?
Yes, Trump is a dire threat. So why are Democrats willing to risk this election and losing to Trump over their blind commitment to Israel as it clearly commits genocide in Gaza and the West Bank?
We should all be outraged at the Democratic Party for risking the rights of so many Americans and people in its coalition over the interests of a foreign nation.
The parallels of the 2024 election and the 1968 election are crystal clear: Democrats lost the 1968 election by less than 1% point, ushering in the eras of Nixon, Reagan, and Bush and policies that we are still facing the negative impacts of today (trickle down economics for one). Vietnam loomed large over that election and Gaza looms large over this election.
If we do not learn from history, we are doomed to repeat it.
More Detailed Video Analysis: Instagram; YouTube
Two Truths & a Lie
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are “working tirelessly” towards a ceasefire.
A two-state solution is still possible.
The majority of American voters believe the U.S. should not be sending weapons and supplies to Israel.
In Case You Missed It: Social Media Roundup
TikTok: Refusing to Platform a Palestinian American Speaker at the DNC; Harris’ Remarks at the DNC; Harris/Walz CNN Interview: No Change in Policy; Analysis of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago
Twitter/X: Why is the San Francisco District Attorney Accepting Gifts from the Israeli Government?; Zionism Will Forever Be Associated With Genocide; The Anti-Defamation League’s Grift
Threads: The Smartest People in the Room; Harris’ Crumbs for Advocates of Palestinian Human Rights;
YouTube: Harris/Walz CNN Interview: No Change in Policy; Analysis of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago
Instagram: Refusing to Platform a Palestinian American Speaker at the DNC; Harris’ Remarks at the DNC; Harris/Walz CNN Interview: No Change in Policy; Analysis of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago
Up Next
Presidential Debate & 9/11 Anniversary: The next newsletter will include 1) an analysis of the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump (taking place September 10), and 2) a reflection on the anniversary of 9/11, the impact of that era, and information on the spike in Islamophobia and anti-Muslim sentiment and hate incidents in the U.S. and the West since the genocide in Gaza began.